2021 Big Game Hunting Forecast

Are you ready for hunting season? FWP can help. In addition to the following hunting forecast, FWP provides online information about hunting access, including our popular Block Management Program. Through the program, we coordinate with landowners to provide hunting access to more than 7 million acres of private land.

The interactive Hunt Planner map allows users to look at information for various species, including hunting districts and regulations. The hunt planner interactive map is a great way to access our block management information, so if you’re planning a hunt in a certain area, you can see if there are Block Management Areas available to expand your opportunity.

And, as always, you can contact our helpful staff at any of our regional offices around the state. They’re happy to help and can often get you pointed in the right direction with just a few simple tips.

Montana has some of the longest hunting seasons in the West, healthy herds of game and access to millions of acres of public land. However, hunters must be mindful of fire danger and of private landowners who are facing grass shortages, poor crop production and fatigue from monitoring for fire. Hunter harvest helps to reduce wildlife densities on a stressed landscape, and perhaps to help lessen winter depredation on haystacks or winter range.

To have the best possible experience, hunters should plan ahead, check for any fire or access restrictions, and have a backup plan. Please stay on designated roadways and paths, and do not park your vehicle in tall grass. Remember to pack some basic equipment for fire suppression.

To check for possible Block Management closures or restrictions, hunters can visit fwp.mt.gov. The Hunt Planner map also will list any restrictions. To check for fire restrictions, visit the Restrictions and Closures page on the FWP website. Montana also has a new dashboard for comprehensive fire information at mtfireinfo.org.

Destination: SOUTHWEST MONTANA

Southwest Montana is experiencing exceptional drought this year. This will impact hunters as they prepare and spend time afield this season.

Fire danger remains high throughout the region, so be aware of fire restrictions, road and campground closures, and other regulations in effect to reduce wildfires. Keep motorized vehicles on roads, and don’t park over dry fuels. Contact the applicable land management agency for updates on area closures or fire restrictions. Some Block Management areas are also closed or restricted due to fire danger. Visit fwp.mt.gov to see what rules are in place for Block Management properties.

Some big game animals may be in diminished body condition this year due to drought and reduced forage, depending on species and location. This may also impact antler growth and reproduction. Overwinter survival of big game last winter was good in most areas because of mild weather. But survival during the coming winter and spring may be reduced if extreme winter weather follows the current season of drought and diminished forage.

Elk numbers in the Tendoy Elk Management Unit have been stable and above objective for the past 10 years. Hunting districts in the Tendoy Elk Management Unit have received increasing amounts of hunting pressure, reaching record highs in the 2020 hunting season. The large number of hunters, and the increased number of days they invested in hunting, led to above-average elk harvest. It is expected that this trend will continue in the 2021 season and hunters will continue to experience issues with crowding in accessible areas.

The most recent elk count in the Pioneer Elk Management Unit was significantly higher than average and over objective. However, elk migratory behavior and distribution during the unusually mild winter last year likely contributed to an unusually high count. In general, the Pioneer EMU elk population has increased over the past 10 years with populations remaining at or near objective.

Biologists have observed record-high numbers of elk in the Gravelly and Tobacco Root elk management units, where winter conditions last season were very mild. A high portion of elk in the north Tobacco Roots will be found off National Forest lands, and the 333-01 elk B license is valid for those areas. Antlerless harvest is encouraged in order to bring the herd closer to objective and to reduce the demand on limited forage resources in this area.

Elk production in the Big Hole this year has been status quo, with good overwinter survival from last season. Drought conditions here and elsewhere have created poor growing conditions, but hunting opportunity should still be plentiful. Elk will likely be more concentrated in wet areas.

Elk numbers in most parts of the Townsend area are good, and antlerless harvest is encouraged. Elk numbers in HD 392, however, have been down for several years. Elk numbers in the Helena area look good.

Elk numbers vary by district in the Bozeman area. Hunting Districts 301, 309, 312 and 360 are above objective. HDs 311 and 362 are within objective. HD 310 is below objective, and antlerless elk harvest in this district is prohibited.

Elk numbers remain strong in the Livingston area, with most districts over objective. As with other districts, elk distribution in this area will vary depending on available forage.

In 2021, mule deer aerial green-up flights produced lower counts in the East Pioneer (HD 331) and Lima Peaks (HD 300) areas than the previous year. However, unusual green-up conditions likely failed to concentrate deer for a representative survey. In general, counts in these areas have been stable to increasing over the past 10 years. Mule deer buck harvest has been increasing in the Pioneers and Tendoys, also suggesting population growth. Recent surveys have indicated better than average buck-to-doe ratios. In the 2021 mule deer season hunters can expect a similar population to last year. However, recent surveys have suggested lower-than-average recruitment. Coupled with this year’s drought, this may have negative consequences for deer hunting opportunities in upcoming years.

Biologists observed an 11 percent reduction this spring in population trend counts in the Sheridan area compared to 2020. Like the East Pioneer and Tendoys, this was likely influenced by mild winter conditions, which didn’t produce a full concentration of deer on traditional winter range. Hunting opportunities here should be similar to last year. Because of drought conditions, a robust harvest of deer is encouraged to reduce competition for browse on winter range and improve winter survival.

Biologists and hunters have observed relatively few mature bucks in the Big Hole area due to strong hunting pressure. Mule deer numbers in districts in this area are below average.

Overwinter survival of mule deer in the Townsend area was good, but recruitment was still lower than usual last year. Mule deer numbers are down in most National Forest lands in this area, while mule deer may be overabundant in other localized areas, especially agricultural areas.

Mule deer numbers in the Helena area are still below long-term objectives, though annual recruitment this year shows some improvement. Previous extreme winter weather was hard on mule deer in this area, slowing their recovery.

Most districts in the Bozeman area are within objective for mule deer, with good winter survival from last season.

Mule deer counts in the Livingston area were down this year, probably due to mild winter conditions that didn’t produce a full concentration of deer on winter ranges where they could be surveyed easily.

White-tailed deer numbers remain strong in many parts of southwest Montana. They are typically associated with agricultural and private lands at lower elevations, where permission is required for access.

As a result of last year’s Chronic Wasting Disease management hunt for white-tailed deer in southwest Montana, biologists observed a 50-percent reduction in white-tailed deer numbers in the Ruby watershed between Sheridan and Twin Bridges, where CWD prevalence was highest. No population reduction was observed higher in the Ruby watershed. A 14 percent reduction in white-tailed deer numbers was observed in the Jefferson Valley. Liberal harvest of white-tailed deer in this area is still encouraged.

White-tailed deer numbers in the Shields and Paradise Valleys are down slightly as noted from on-the-ground observations and conversations with landowners.

Recent pronghorn counts in the Lima Peaks (HD 301) and East Pioneers (HD 310) have been above average, and the long-term trend indicates stable (HD 301) to increasing (HD 310) numbers. Recent pronghorn surveys in HD 300 and HD 329 show continued population declines since the late 1990s. These declines are associated with similar declines in fawn-to-doe ratios. Definitive information concerning the causes for diminished pronghorn numbers and fawn production is lacking. Pronghorn in these areas may be limited by habitat quality. Pronghorn in the Pioneers and Big Hole are interconnected and changes in migratory behavior could also influence counts. If 2021 drought conditions continue, many pronghorn will likely seek forage on greener areas of private land. This could make pronghorn hunting on publicly accessible lands more challenging.

Biologists observed a 13 percent increase in pronghorn in the west Tobacco Root mountains (HD 320) this year, but the overall number of pronghorn remains 30 to 40 percent lower than prior to March 2019 winter-related mortality. Most pronghorn are concentrated in the southern half of the district. Hunters with licenses for HD 320 are encouraged to pursue pronghorn in that portion of the district. Hunters looking for pronghorn in HDs 321 and 330 can expect similar numbers compared to 2020, though distribution of animals may vary due to dry conditions. Larger groups of pronghorn have been observed in smaller areas in close proximity to water and green vegetation. Pronghorn are often more influenced by drought than other species because they utilize dryer, lower-elevation habitat.

Pronghorn production in the Big Hole Valley seems to be down slightly this year, likely due to drought. But overall numbers are still decent, with many of them on private land.

Biologists have seen a poor fawn crop of pronghorn in HDs 371 and 380 south of Montana City, with a significant decline since the previous survey three years ago.

Pronghorn numbers are above average in hunting district 360 around Ennis, but biologists have seen some summertime mortality of collared does from various causes.

The pronghorn count in the Helena area was down this year. Because few pronghorn licenses are issued here already, there was no change to the number of licenses this year.

Pronghorn counts are also down in the Livingston area, especially in hunting district 338, which was down roughly 24 percent from 2019.